A股行情能走多远？不期望“疯牛”“蛮牛”，投资者这一操作最致命

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of managing investment expectations and highlights the potential for A-shares to provide stable returns, especially in the context of a rising market and the influx of capital from maturing deposits [1][3]. Group 1: Market Context - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 4100 points, marking a nearly 10-year high since 2015, with predictions of 50 trillion to 70 trillion yuan in time deposits maturing this year [1]. - The current 10-year government bond yield is only 1.8%, prompting investors to seek returns above 2%, potentially leading to a shift of savings into the stock market [1]. Group 2: Investment Expectations - Investors often amplify their return expectations from a modest annualized rate of over 2% to unrealistic daily gains, which can jeopardize their principal and long-term wealth accumulation [1][4]. - The article cites investor Dan Yongping, who suggests a target return of slightly above long-term government bonds, around 8%, and emphasizes the importance of maintaining a rational mindset towards investment returns [1]. Group 3: Dividend Yield and Stock Selection - The current dividend yield for the A-share dividend index is 4.8%, while the Shanghai 180 Index has a yield of 3.2%, indicating potential annualized returns exceeding 8% when combined with GDP growth [1]. - Nearly 500 stocks have a dividend yield exceeding 3%, with a total market capitalization of 37 trillion yuan, suggesting numerous opportunities for investors seeking stable returns [1]. Group 4: Importance of Dividends - Dividends serve as a reliable indicator of a company's quality, with 80% of companies fitting the criteria of low valuation, high cash flow, and high dividends [4][5]. - Companies that consistently increase dividends typically outperform those that do not, indicating strong financial health and confidence in future cash flow growth [5]. Group 5: Investment Philosophy - The article warns against the tendency of investors to shift from high-quality stocks to lower-quality, high-growth stocks during bull markets, which can lead to significant losses in bear markets [6]. - It stresses the importance of sticking to the original investment goals of capital preservation and beating inflation, rather than succumbing to speculative behaviors [6].