公募承接“千亿”活水！哪类基金获益？

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trend of "savings migration" is a hot topic in 2026, with significant interest from banks, brokers, insurance companies, and investment funds in this "incremental liquidity" [1] Group 1: Savings Migration Scale and Sources - The scale of one-year and above resident fixed deposits maturing in 2026 is expected to reach 50 trillion yuan, an increase of 10 trillion yuan from 2025 [3] - The potential allocation of these funds to public funds is estimated to be over 800 billion yuan, as most of the matured deposits are likely to remain in banks, with a retention rate of over 90% [2][3] - The increase in preventive savings by residents in recent years has contributed to this large volume of maturing deposits, with annual increments exceeding 10 trillion yuan since 2020 [3] Group 2: Investment Preferences and Strategies - The incremental funds are expected to favor stable investments, likely flowing into index funds and diversified allocation strategies, including ETFs and "fixed income plus" products [1][4] - The anticipated incremental capital for A-shares in 2026 is around 3 trillion yuan, with public funds potentially seeing an increase of approximately 877.27 billion yuan [4] - The average equity allocation ratio for newly issued mixed funds is expected to be relatively low, around 20% [4] Group 3: Fund Types and Market Trends - Multi-asset allocation funds, such as FOF and "fixed income plus," are expected to be significant vehicles for the migrating funds, with FOFs reaching a historical high of over 240 billion yuan [6] - The total scale of "fixed income plus" funds has surpassed 2.4 trillion yuan, with new products launched since 2025 exceeding 100 billion yuan [6] - The trend of active equity funds has stabilized since September 2025, with a slight recovery in their share, indicating renewed investor confidence in equity funds [7] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current fund sales channels have not yet directly observed the migration of deposits to public funds, but there is evidence of increased activity in the e-commerce channel for fund subscriptions and redemptions [8] - The allocation strategy for migrating savings is influenced by market conditions, with a gradual increase in risk appetite expected as the market evolves [8] - The public fund asset allocation framework is shifting towards a "structural trend" approach, focusing on long-term core assets in technology innovation, advanced manufacturing, and digital economy [9]