2100亿，一个超级IPO要来了

Core Viewpoint - The current moment may represent the best exit opportunity for investors in the past decade, particularly with the upcoming IPO of Watsons Group, which is expected to be valued at $30 billion (approximately 208.8 billion RMB) [4][19]. Group 1: Market Insights - In the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector, beauty and personal care products have the highest gross margins, typically exceeding 60%, compared to food and beverage products, which generally maintain margins of 30% to 40% [3]. - The beauty and personal care segment holds approximately 20% of the global FMCG market share, with the potential to rise to 40% when including home care and over-the-counter health products [3]. Group 2: Watsons Group IPO Details - Watsons Group is preparing for an IPO, having engaged Goldman Sachs and UBS as underwriters, with potential listings in Hong Kong and London [4]. - The IPO is anticipated to occur as early as the second quarter of this year, with a target valuation of $30 billion [4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Strategic Moves - Watsons previously sought an IPO in 2013, claiming to be the largest beauty and personal care retailer in Asia and Europe, with over 10,500 stores and an EBITDA of $1.64 billion in 2012 [6]. - In 2014, Watsons opted for strategic investment from Temasek, raising 44 billion HKD (approximately 39.2 billion RMB) for a 25% stake, which was seen as a premium investment [7][8]. Group 4: Recent Performance and Challenges - By 2021, Watsons had expanded to 16,398 stores globally, with 4,179 in mainland China, but faced a decline in growth rates, dropping from 17% in 2012 to 3% in 2019 [13]. - In 2023, Watsons reported a revenue of 16.453 billion HKD in China, a 6% decline year-on-year, marking the first negative growth in store numbers in nine years [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategic Adjustments - Watsons is planning to open approximately 3,800 new style stores globally by 2025, with an investment of $250 million, indicating a significant strategic shift [17]. - The retail business of the parent company, CK Hutchison, is showing signs of recovery, with a 41% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of 2025, driven by strong growth in beauty and personal care sectors [18].