野村陆挺：政策呵护牛市，适度“降温”举措确有必要

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend, which is different from the "crazy bull" of 2015, with policies aimed at nurturing the market while preventing overheating and significant downturns [3][4][7]. Market Performance - Since the beginning of 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) has risen from 4000 to 4136.16 points, with a 0.33% increase as of January 22, and a total trading volume of 3.12 trillion yuan [5]. - The SSE has increased from approximately 2700 points in the "924" market rally, reaching 3500 points in July and 3800 points by the end of last year [5]. Policy Effectiveness - The current market policies are described as moderately loose, with effective measures taken by financial regulatory bodies to stabilize the market while being cautious [6][8]. - Since July and August of the previous year, policies have been more conservative to prevent a repeat of the 2015 bubble [7]. Financing and Market Cooling - There has been a moderate recovery in IPOs, but the number of new stock issuances has not surged significantly [9]. - It is deemed necessary to cool down the market to prevent overheating and to ensure alignment between the stock market and economic fundamentals [9]. Economic Growth Predictions - The stock market is expected to have a limited but positive impact on economic growth, with a consensus that the economy will not perform poorly in the second half of the year [11]. - Economic growth in 2026 is predicted to follow a "front low, back high" pattern due to base effects, with potential improvements in the third and fourth quarters if policies continue to support the economy [12][13]. Policy Focus - The core of this year's policy is expected to be on fiscal measures, with structural monetary policies serving as supplementary tools [14].