如何把握当下市场机会？中欧瑞博吴伟志：看好五大硬资产主线

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a new upward cycle since October 2024, with the current phase described as "summer," indicating active trading and sector rotation, but not yet reaching a peak or bubble stage [1][2]. Market Characteristics - The market is currently characterized by high trading volume and broad participation, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points, signaling the end of debates over bull and bear market transitions [2]. - The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 is approximately 14 times, significantly lower than the S&P 500 (about 29 times) and NASDAQ (about 42 times), indicating that the current market rebound is more of a "catch-up" rather than a bubble [2]. Product Cycle Observation - The representative products of the company have only seen a 16%-17% increase since reaching historical highs in June 2025, suggesting that there is still significant upward potential [3]. Economic Comparison - The current fundamental conditions in China are considered stronger than those in Japan during its economic transition, with a more stable financial system and lower policy learning costs [5][6]. - China's manufacturing sector remains globally competitive, with a record trade surplus in 2025, and new economic sectors like renewable energy and digital economy are driving growth [6][7]. Investment Focus for 2026 - The core investment themes for 2026 are shifting from heavy assets to hard assets, with sectors like rare earths, energy metals, and chemical materials gaining importance due to their pricing power in a concentrated global supply environment [8]. - The company emphasizes five structural investment directions: 1. Technological innovation, particularly in AI and commercial aerospace [9] 2. Biopharmaceuticals, with validated global competitiveness [10] 3. Gold and hard assets, which hold value amid global monetary expansion [11] 4. Revaluation of Chinese manufacturing leaders as key supports in a slow bull market [12] 5. High-dividend assets serving as defensive positions [13] Market Dynamics - The current market rally is driven by a combination of policy, valuation, and sentiment bottoms, alongside the early stages of industrial cycles in AI, energy transition, and biotechnology [14].