2100亿，一个超级IPO要来了

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the high gross margins of the beauty and personal care sector compared to other fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), highlighting the potential for investment in companies like Watsons, which is planning an IPO with a target valuation of approximately $30 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - The beauty and personal care products generally maintain gross margins above 60%, with leading brands like Estée Lauder achieving a gross margin of 74% in their latest financial report [1]. - In the global FMCG market, food and beverages account for 55% of sales, while beauty and personal care hold about 20% market share, which could rise to 40% when including home care and over-the-counter health products [1]. Group 2: Watsons' IPO Plans - Watsons Group, a subsidiary of CK Hutchison Holdings, is preparing for an IPO, with reports indicating a target valuation of approximately $30 billion (around 208.8 billion RMB) [2]. - The company has engaged Goldman Sachs and UBS as underwriters for the IPO, which may take place in Hong Kong or London, with expectations for the listing to occur as early as the second quarter of this year [2]. Group 3: Historical Context and Strategic Moves - Watsons previously sought an IPO in 2013, claiming to be the largest beauty and personal care retailer in Asia and Europe, with over 10,500 stores and an EBITDA of $1.64 billion in 2012 [3]. - The company shifted its strategic focus from Europe to mainland China, where it saw significant revenue growth, contributing 24% of total revenue despite only having 13% of its stores in that market [4]. Group 4: Recent Performance and Challenges - By 2021, Watsons had expanded to 16,398 stores globally, but growth in mainland China slowed significantly, with a drop in store count and revenue in 2022 and 2023 [11]. - In 2023, Watsons reported a revenue of 16.453 billion HKD in mainland China, a decline of 6% year-on-year, marking the first negative growth in store count in nine years [11]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Investor Sentiment - The upcoming IPO is seen as a favorable exit opportunity for investors, with expectations of raising at least $2 billion and a potential valuation increase of 33% for Temasek's investment [16]. - The retail business of CK Hutchison, which includes Watsons, reported a revenue of 99 billion HKD in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 41% year-on-year growth, driven by strong performance in beauty and personal care sectors [15].