【转|太平洋医药-26年度策略】聚焦创新，共赴新程

Market Overview - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a structural bull market in 2025, with the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rising nearly 30% in the first three quarters, driven by the global recognition of the value of innovative drugs and devices [2][3] - The industry is expected to enter a critical phase of innovation realization and global expansion in 2026, shifting investment logic from expectation-driven to closely tracking clinical data, commercialization progress, and international achievements [2][3] Valuation Insights - The pharmaceutical sector's valuation remains at historical lows, with significant investment opportunities still available. As of December 31, 2025, various sub-sectors are trading at relatively low valuations, such as biopharmaceuticals at 35.16X and medical devices at 33.07X [7][9] - The medical services, chemical raw materials, and chemical preparations sectors have shown impressive growth, with increases of 29.22%, 22.03%, and 20.44% respectively [7] Revenue and Profit Trends - From January to November 2025, China's pharmaceutical manufacturing industry reported total revenue of 220.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.51%, while total profit decreased by 1.79% [9] - The performance of the biopharmaceutical, medical services, and pharmaceutical distribution sectors has improved, with biopharmaceuticals benefiting from rapid drug volume growth post-collection [9] Fund Management and Investment Opportunities - As of the end of Q3 2025, public funds' holdings in the pharmaceutical sector were at 11.22%, below the ten-year average of 8.15%, indicating potential for excess returns as the sector approaches a performance inflection point [11] - The low allocation of public funds and the sector's historical low valuations present significant opportunities for investment in high-potential sub-sectors and individual stocks [11] Innovation and Policy Support - The Chinese biopharmaceutical industry is entering a new phase of high-quality development, with significant improvements in innovation capabilities among the top 100 pharmaceutical companies [14][21] - The government has implemented comprehensive policies to support the development of innovative drugs and medical devices, transitioning from single-item support to a full-chain, regional, and financial support system [15][28] Global Market Position - China has become the second-largest market for innovative drug launches globally, contributing approximately 30% of the world's innovative pipelines as of Q3 2025 [50][66] - The country is increasingly recognized for its efficiency and cost-effectiveness in drug development, with a significant number of clinical trials initiated in China, particularly in oncology [53][66] Licensing and Commercialization Trends - The number of license-out transactions for Chinese innovative drugs has surged, with 103 deals recorded in the first three quarters of 2025, totaling $92.03 billion, marking a 77% increase year-on-year [43][63] - The successful inclusion of innovative drugs in the new commercial insurance directory is expected to enhance their commercialization prospects [30] Future Growth Areas - Next-generation therapies, including ADCs, bispecific antibodies, and cell and gene therapies, are becoming focal points for research and investment, with China leading in these areas [76][87] - The oncology drug market is projected to reach $441 billion, with new therapies expected to account for about 20% of treatment expenditures by 2029 [82]