曹婕：稳舵前行，筑牢收益底盘

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the profound changes in the Chinese bond market and how investment institutions can navigate uncertainties to find certainty opportunities, emphasizing a shift towards a new phase of "asset allocation + trading configuration" in fixed income investment [1][5]. Group 1: Market Environment and Trends - The Chinese bond market has transitioned from "old economy" to "new economy," reflecting macroeconomic changes, with the 10-year government bond yield showing a clear downward trend from around 3.6% in 2014 to approximately 1.0% by 2025 [7][8]. - The bond market has exhibited a "bull long, bear short" characteristic, with bull market cycles averaging around 25 months and bear markets typically lasting less than a year [8][12]. - The investment landscape has shifted from a focus on basic economic fundamentals and liquidity to a more complex framework that includes regulatory impacts and institutional behaviors [10][11]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Fixed income investment strategies have evolved, requiring a more nuanced approach to credit risk, emphasizing the need for in-depth analysis of issuer risks and industry dynamics [11][12]. - The current investment environment necessitates a refined liquidity management strategy and cross-market asset allocation to enhance returns, moving away from traditional "weak economy + loose monetary policy = bull market" logic [12][13]. - The "barbell strategy" is becoming a common choice among managers, focusing on assets with low correlation to balance risk and capture specific market opportunities [14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a strategic opportunity for asset allocation, with improved visibility in the global macroeconomic landscape and significant policy shifts expected in both domestic and international contexts [18]. - The article highlights the importance of diversifying into multiple asset classes to enhance returns, with a focus on maintaining a stable fixed income foundation while exploring opportunities in commodities and equities [13][17]. - The anticipated growth in AI applications and infrastructure is expected to create new investment opportunities, with a focus on sectors such as technology and industrials [16][18].