德勤：《2026科技、传媒和电信行业预测》报告

Core Insights - The global technology industry is at a critical juncture, transitioning from the experimental phase of generative AI to a more pragmatic application by 2026, with a focus on foundational capabilities and cross-industry integration [1] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is becoming a fundamental driver of growth, efficiency, and innovation across all industries, surpassing the importance of chips and code [1] Group 1: Generative AI and SaaS - A significant trend is the shift from "active showcasing" to "passive service" in the use of generative AI, with embedded AI in mainstream applications expected to surpass standalone AI tools by 2026 [2] - The accessibility of passive generative AI will lead to a 300% higher usage rate in everyday applications like search engines compared to independent tools, making AI a background infrastructure in digital life [2] Group 2: Agent AI and SaaS Market Transformation - The rise of "Agent AI" will fundamentally change how enterprise software is procured and used, evolving SaaS applications into autonomous real-time workflow services [3] - Traditional subscription and per-seat licensing models may be replaced by hybrid models based on usage and outcomes, reflecting a shift from selling tools to selling results [3] Group 3: Market Size and Projections - The autonomous automation market is projected to reach $8.5 billion by 2026, with potential growth to $35 billion by 2030, contingent on addressing multi-agent orchestration challenges [4] Group 4: Computing Infrastructure and Energy Challenges - The focus of AI computation is shifting from model training to model inference, with predictions indicating that inference will account for two-thirds of all AI computation by 2026 [5] - The construction costs for AI data centers are expected to reach $400 billion by 2026, with annual costs potentially climbing to $1 trillion, posing significant energy challenges [7] Group 5: Geopolitical Influences and Technology Sovereignty - The complexity of the global geopolitical environment is driving nations to strengthen control over digital infrastructure, particularly in AI, leading to increased investments in cloud computing, semiconductors, and data centers [7] Group 6: Robotics and Physical AI - The global cumulative installation of robots is expected to reach 5.5 million units by 2026, with annual sales around 500,000 units, indicating a gradual but steady growth in the robotics sector [8] Group 7: Media and Entertainment Trends - The revenue from in-app micro-dramas is projected to double to $7.8 billion by 2026, reflecting a shift towards fragmented, mobile-first content consumption [9] - Video podcasts are expected to generate approximately $5 billion in annual advertising revenue by 2026, growing nearly 20% year-on-year [9] Group 8: Regulatory Concerns in Media - The rise of generative AI in media may trigger regulatory responses in the U.S. by 2026, addressing concerns over misinformation and copyright issues [10] Group 9: Conclusion on Industry Maturity - The overarching theme of the Deloitte report is that AI is moving away from myth and returning to the essence of industry, indicating a more mature and pragmatic phase for the TMT sector [11]