日本百货业5年来首现负增长

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese department store industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with sales declining for the first time in five years, primarily due to weak inbound consumption and a drop in Chinese tourist numbers [3][5][9]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In 2025, Japan's department store sales totaled 5.67 trillion yen (approximately 36 billion USD), marking a 1.5% decrease from the previous year [3]. - Duty-free sales amounted to about 36 billion USD, down 12.7% year-on-year [3]. - December 2025 saw a notable decline in duty-free sales, with a 17.1% drop compared to the same month in the previous year [5]. Group 2: Impact of Chinese Tourists - Major department store groups in Japan reported duty-free sales declines ranging from 10% to 20% in December 2025, with specific declines of 15.8% for Mitsukoshi Isetan, 11.1% for Takashimaya, and 20% for Hankyu Hanshin [5]. - Sales directed at Chinese tourists saw even steeper declines, with Takashimaya down 35% and Hankyu Hanshin down 40% [5]. - The number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan dropped by 45.3% year-on-year, significantly impacting sales [6]. Group 3: Economic Context - Japan's GDP contracted by 1.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025, marking a return to negative growth [9]. - The average core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan rose by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding the 2% target for the fourth consecutive year, driven by rising food prices and other costs [9]. - The depreciation of the yen is expected to further increase prices, which may suppress already weak consumer spending [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Concerns are growing regarding the sales outlook for February 2026, with major department stores predicting a 24% decrease in operating profit during the period from December 2025 to February 2026 [8]. - Predictions indicate that spending by Chinese tourists in 2026 could be halved compared to 2025, posing challenges to Japan's tourism goals [8].