起点锂电·2026-01-26 10:11Core Viewpoint - By 2025, Chinese companies are expected to lead the global sodium battery industry, with major domestic players accelerating their sodium battery strategies, including CATL, BYD, and Huawei [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - The global sodium ion battery shipment is projected to reach 9 GWh in 2025, representing a 150% year-on-year increase, with the market expected to grow to 1051 GWh by 2030 [6]. - The primary applications for sodium batteries in 2025 will be in energy storage, start-stop systems, two-wheeled vehicles, low-range electric vehicles, and uninterruptible power supplies (UPS) [6]. Group 2: Product Diversity - Sodium battery products in China include large square, conventional square, various cylindrical types (from 18650 to super large 120420), and soft-pack batteries, showcasing a trend towards product diversification [2]. - Major manufacturers for different product types include Weike Technology, CATL, BYD, and others, with specific models listed for each category [3]. Group 3: Market Segmentation - In 2025, the shipment distribution for sodium batteries is expected to be 5.6 GWh for energy storage (62.2%), 1.7 GWh for light-duty power (18.8%), 1 GWh for automotive power (11.3%), and 0.5 GWh for start-stop batteries (5.6%) [9]. - The sodium battery's advantages in cycle life and safety make it suitable for various applications, including grid frequency regulation and AI data center storage [5]. Group 4: Material and Cost Trends - The average price of sodium battery cells is expected to be 0.52 yuan/Wh in 2025, decreasing to 0.25 yuan/Wh by 2030 [7]. - The shipment of sodium battery positive materials is projected to reach 20,000 tons in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 122.2% [12]. - The average price for layered oxide positive materials is expected to be 46,000 yuan/ton in 2025, while the price for polycation positive materials is projected to be 28,000 yuan/ton [14]. Group 5: Future Trends - The sodium battery industry is anticipated to see significant growth from 2026 to 2030, with increased penetration in start-stop and energy storage markets, and a focus on low-temperature applications [36]. - The cost of sodium battery materials and cells is expected to decline significantly, with projections indicating that prices will fall below those of lithium iron phosphate batteries by 2027 and below lead-acid batteries by 2028 [36]. - The share of polycation materials is expected to rise significantly, while layered oxides will see a decline, with biomass hard carbon remaining the mainstream material for sodium battery anodes [36].