全球氢能市场开始“脚踏实地”

Core Viewpoint - The global hydrogen industry is entering a critical phase where economic viability and sustainability will be the main criteria for project evaluation by 2026, marking a shift from policy-driven to market-driven dynamics [3][5]. Group 1: Industry Transition - The hydrogen industry is moving from a phase driven by ambitious policy goals to one where the success of projects will depend on the alignment of policy support, end-user demand, and viable business models [5][6]. - Projects that can synchronize policy and market demand are expected to advance, while those reliant solely on policy visions may stagnate or require adjustments [5][6]. - By 2026, at least three large hydrogen projects targeting the European market are anticipated to make final investment decisions, with a total capacity exceeding 50,000 tons per year [5]. Group 2: Economic Viability - The report emphasizes that many projects are now undergoing stricter economic viability assessments, revealing vulnerabilities in projects that have overly relied on policy goals without solid purchase agreements and cost control [6]. - The driving logic of the hydrogen industry is shifting from "setting goals first, then finding markets" to "demand-driven project feasibility" [6]. Group 3: China's Role - China is emerging as a key driver in the global clean hydrogen sector, showcasing a different development trajectory compared to other regions [8][9]. - Chinese companies are overcoming barriers to large-scale clean hydrogen development through continuous technological advancements and industrialization efforts, leading to a decrease in overall green hydrogen costs [8][9]. - China's complete industrial chain and sustained investment capabilities allow it to maintain a relatively stable development pace amid global uncertainties [9]. Group 4: Regional Pathways - The EU and Middle East are facing distinct pressures for adjustment in their hydrogen development paths by 2026 [11]. - In Europe, there may be substantive adjustments to the target of having 42% of industrial hydrogen sourced from renewable energy by 2030, as progress has been slow and regulatory burdens have increased project costs significantly [11]. - The Middle East is also under pressure, with at least three large-scale projects originally planned for export expected to be canceled or significantly scaled back due to delays in related policies [11]. Group 5: Emerging Opportunities - Certain segments within the hydrogen industry are still poised for new growth, with industrial ammonia cracking technology expected to achieve key breakthroughs by 2026 [12]. - Projects in India are showing a split, with some cost-advantaged projects likely to be operational on schedule, while others face higher risks due to lack of scale [12]. - Overall, 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year for the hydrogen industry, transitioning from vision to reality, with resources concentrating in economically viable and demand-secured regions [12].