俄乌和平进程到底卡在哪儿

Group 1 - The atmosphere for promoting peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is better compared to the previous year, although predicting a ceasefire by February 24 is difficult [4] - The first tripartite talks involving representatives from Russia, Ukraine, and the United States took place in Abu Dhabi, marking a significant development in the peace process [2][4] - The European Union's enthusiasm for the peace process has diminished, particularly after recent geopolitical events, indicating a shift in their commitment to countering Russia [6] Group 2 - Trump's determination is seen as a crucial driving force for peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, despite his fluctuating stance on the issue [7] - Russia's obsession with the Donbas region remains a significant barrier to peace, as it is central to their military objectives [8][9] - Ukraine has made substantial concessions, including a commitment to cease military efforts to reclaim occupied territories, which could form the basis for peace [11] Group 3 - The timeline for Russia to capture the remaining parts of Donbas through military means is estimated to be at least five years, with critical political events in the U.S. potentially influencing the conflict's dynamics [11] - If Russia were to abandon its claims on Donbas, it is uncertain how Ukraine would respond, indicating the complexity of the peace negotiations [12]