全球债券收益未来5~10年有望超过股票，日本国债变得“更有趣”

Core Viewpoint - The current pricing of bonds is highly attractive compared to stocks, and investors should diversify globally to maximize returns and mitigate risks [3][5]. Group 1: Bond Market Outlook - Over the next 5 to 10 years, bond yields are expected to outperform stocks, as historical data shows that the S&P 500 index has averaged nearly 15% returns over the past 15 years, while the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index only returned 2% during the same period [6]. - The current CAPE ratio for U.S. stocks is at 40, indicating that future stock returns may be negative, while the median return for the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is projected to be 5.48% [6][7]. - The initial yield of high-quality global fixed-income assets is highly correlated with future returns, with the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index currently yielding 4.4%, the highest in a decade [8]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors should consider combining stock and bond portfolios or increasing bond holdings to achieve higher long-term returns in the current environment [7]. - A global investment approach is essential, as some non-U.S. government bonds yield around 5%, and investors should not limit themselves to domestic markets [8]. Group 3: Japanese Bond Market - The recent rise in Japanese government bond yields is attributed to expectations of fiscal expansion, making the Japanese bond market increasingly interesting for investors [8]. - The performance of Japanese long-term bonds has historically been poor, but the recent yield increase may prompt a reevaluation of low allocation strategies towards Japanese bonds [8][9]. Group 4: Credit Bond Market Concerns - The credit bond market has shown signs of complacency, with rapid growth but declining quality in underwritten bonds and tightening spreads [10]. - Historical parallels suggest that the credit bond market may underperform compared to higher-quality fixed-income assets due to rising geopolitical uncertainties and declining underwriting quality [10]. - Despite rising corporate leverage, the quality of housing mortgage credit is improving, leading to a preference for overweighting mortgage credit [10].