1月狂涨69.8%，显著跑赢所有板块

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a historic surge, with silver and gold prices reaching all-time highs due to geopolitical tensions and increased demand from central banks and investors [2][4][11]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - As of January 26, 2026, the main silver contract in Shanghai surged by 14%, surpassing 30 yuan per gram, while gold reached 1150 yuan per gram, marking significant increases [2]. - The A-share precious metals sector has risen by 69.8% year-to-date, outperforming all other sectors, while the non-ferrous metals sector increased by 30.85% [2]. - Year-to-date, the Gold Stock ETF (517400) has risen by 38.06%, and the Mining ETF (561330) has increased by 26.89% [2]. Group 2: Underlying Drivers of Precious Metals Surge - The surge in precious metals is driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly actions taken by the Trump administration, including military interventions and withdrawal from international organizations [6][10]. - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the geopolitical climate have led to increased global demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with many countries significantly increasing their gold reserves [11][12]. - A notable trend is the repatriation of gold reserves by various countries, including Germany and several African nations, driven by concerns over the safety of gold stored in the U.S. [12]. Group 3: De-dollarization and Its Impact - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum, with Denmark's decision to sell U.S. Treasury bonds signaling a potential shift among other central banks towards buying gold instead [13]. - The share of U.S. Treasury bonds in global central bank reserves has fallen below 25%, while gold's share has risen to 28.9%, indicating a shift in reserve asset preferences [16]. - A recent survey by the World Gold Council revealed that 95% of central banks plan to increase their gold holdings in 2026, the highest proportion in recent years [17]. Group 4: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, exacerbated by export controls from major silver-producing countries, leading to a significant delivery shortfall on the COMEX [20][21]. - As of late January 2026, the deliverable silver inventory on COMEX was only 29% of total inventory, with a delivery gap exceeding 65% [20]. Group 5: Non-Ferrous Metals Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has also seen substantial growth, with the Mining ETF (561330) recording a 106.11% increase in 2025, making it the top-performing sector [24]. - Prices for various non-ferrous metals, including tin, nickel, and lithium, have shown significant weekly increases, reflecting strong demand [25]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions have made non-ferrous resources strategic assets, leading to increased control and investment in these sectors by various countries [27]. Group 6: Institutional Outlook - Major investment banks are bullish on gold and non-ferrous metals, with Goldman Sachs raising its 12-month gold price target from $4800 to $5500, citing geopolitical risks and de-dollarization as key drivers [31]. - Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have also adjusted their gold price forecasts upward, indicating a consensus among institutions regarding the bullish outlook for precious metals [31]. - The strong inflow of funds into gold and mining ETFs further supports the positive sentiment in these sectors, with significant net inflows recorded in early 2026 [32].