解读2025年全球裁员潮：AI还不是关键因素

Core Viewpoint - AI is transforming the way companies employ labor, but it is not necessarily the main driver behind the current wave of layoffs. Instead, AI serves as a narrative framework for structural adjustments within companies while also being a significant force in productivity transformation [1][6]. Group 1: Layoff Trends - A massive layoff wave is expected globally by 2025, affecting various sectors from tech giants to traditional manufacturing and finance. The true drivers behind these layoffs include economic slowdown and strategic restructuring rather than solely AI [2][4]. - In the U.S., approximately 153,074 layoffs were announced in October 2025, marking one of the worst months in over 20 years. By the end of November 2025, total layoffs reached around 1.17 million, the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic [2]. - AI-related layoffs accounted for only about 4% to 5% of total layoffs in the U.S., indicating that economic pressures and strategic realignments are more significant factors [3][6]. Group 2: Regional Differences - In Europe, layoffs are primarily attributed to cost control, profit pressure, and business restructuring, particularly in the automotive and manufacturing sectors [4]. - In China, layoffs are closely linked to macroeconomic adjustments and structural changes, with youth unemployment rates remaining high. The layoffs are driven by economic slowdown and industry cycles rather than a clear AI factor [5]. Group 3: AI's Role in Employment - AI is reshaping job structures, particularly affecting roles in customer service and support. However, the broader causes of layoffs remain economic conditions and strategic business decisions [6][10]. - AI is expected to create new talent demands, with job postings related to AI increasing by approximately 78% in 2025, while the talent pool only grew by 24% [11]. Group 4: Skills and Training - The future workforce will require a combination of skills, including the ability to learn continuously, understand business deeply, and collaborate effectively. These meta-skills will be crucial in the AI era [14][15]. - Companies that invest in employee reskilling and development tend to perform better in terms of innovation and long-term competitiveness compared to those that focus solely on layoffs [19][20]. Group 5: Organizational Change - Successful companies are not just reducing headcount but are also investing in employee skill upgrades and organizational restructuring to adapt to technological changes [20][21]. - The focus should be on optimizing processes and reallocating talent to higher-value roles rather than merely cutting jobs, as this approach supports long-term growth and productivity [21].