第一财经·2026-01-28 11:55Core Viewpoint - The main task for dairy companies in the new year is to overcome declining performance, with many companies announcing profit warnings due to intensified market competition and weak consumer recovery. Companies are shifting towards scenario marketing and functional products to rebuild differentiated competition and seek new market growth [2]. Market Competition - The competition in the dairy market is intensifying, with traditional subscription models facing challenges from supermarkets, e-commerce, and instant retail offering lower-priced fresh milk. For instance, the price of mainstream low-temperature fresh milk is around 9 to 11 yuan for 900ml, while supermarket private labels can go as low as 7 to 8 yuan [4][5]. - Data from Nielsen IQ indicates that from January to November 2025, the growth rate of the domestic dairy market declined by 8.8%. Major dairy companies like Yili, Mengniu, and Guangming reported varying degrees of performance decline in their Q3 reports, with net profits remaining negative despite some recovery efforts [5]. Shift Towards Scenario and Functional Products - Since 2023, growth in the domestic dairy sector has primarily been driven by product structure upgrades, including increased protein content and a shift from ambient to low-temperature products. However, product homogenization continues to pose challenges, particularly in the low-temperature fresh milk segment, leading to price wars [7]. - Companies are focusing on rebuilding differentiation through high-value products and innovations in scenario-based and functional offerings. For example, Guangming Dairy has launched products targeting fitness enthusiasts and specific health needs, such as high-protein yogurt and functional probiotics [8][10]. - Yili's management emphasizes a transition from volume-driven growth to quality-driven growth, with structural growth being influenced by rising health awareness and demand for diversified dairy products in high-tier cities. The adult nutrition market is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2030, indicating significant potential for differentiated product categories [9]. Innovations and Market Strategies - Scenario-based products are a key focus for dairy companies, aiming to attract consumers by leveraging emotional value. For instance, Guangming Dairy introduced a product inspired by local cultural symbols, while San Yuan rebranded its fresh milk to emphasize local identity and freshness [10]. - Despite ongoing fierce competition in traditional liquid milk products, the shift towards functional and scenario-based innovations is seen as a way for companies to escape price competition and align with the growing trend of family nutrition [10].