暂停降息？！美联储，凌晨发布！

Group 1 - The core expectation is that the Federal Reserve will pause its rate cuts, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% during the upcoming meeting [1] - Market predictions indicate a 2.8% probability of a rate cut in January, with a 97.2% chance of maintaining the current rate, aligning with recent statements from key Fed officials [1] - The wording of the policy statement is crucial, with potential adjustments signaling the Fed's future intentions regarding rate cuts [1][2] Group 2 - Inflation indicators show the December 2025 CPI at a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, and core CPI at 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, but still above the Fed's 2% target [2] - Employment data shows a significant slowdown in non-farm job growth, yet the unemployment rate remains stable, indicating no clear signals for a rate cut [2] - Internal voting dynamics and personnel changes within the Fed may influence the decision-making process, with some members advocating for quicker rate cuts [2][3] Group 3 - Political factors are impacting the meeting, with increased intervention from the Trump administration, including a criminal investigation into Powell and potential nominations for the next Fed chair [3] - The market has already priced in expectations for the meeting, with the S&P 500 index at historical high valuations, necessitating supportive monetary policy signals [3] - Overall, the meeting is likely to adopt a "pause" stance, balancing inflation control with economic growth needs, though uncertainties remain regarding political influences and data dependencies [3]