212亿！三大化工新材料巨头，联手

Core Viewpoint - The three major Japanese chemical companies, Asahi Kasei, Mitsui Chemicals, and Mitsubishi Chemical, are investing 21.2 billion yen (approximately 9.63 billion RMB) to shut down existing ethylene facilities and establish bio-based olefin production facilities, marking a strategic shift towards decarbonization and optimization of production capacity [4][5][11]. Group 1: Investment and Project Overview - The investment of 21.2 billion yen includes a maximum subsidy application of 10.4 billion yen, aimed at managing ethylene production facilities in western Japan [9]. - The project will consolidate ethylene production from the Kurashiki plant to the Osaka plant, reducing production capacity from 915,000 tons/year to 455,000 tons/year, effectively cutting nearly 500,000 tons of capacity [8][9]. - The new facilities will utilize Asahi Kasei's Revolefin™ technology to convert bioethanol into ethylene and propylene, with commercial production expected to start in the fiscal year 2034 [8][11]. Group 2: Industry Context and Trends - Japan's ethylene operating rate has fallen below 80%, indicating a significant reduction in oil-based ethylene production capacity, which is further pressured by carbon neutrality goals [12]. - The bio-based olefins market is seen as a growing trend, with the global ethylene market projected to reach $185.5 billion (approximately 1288.3 billion RMB) by 2024 [14]. - The project is expected to reduce CO2 emissions by 506,000 tons annually, equivalent to the emissions from nearly 110,000 cars [15]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Global competitors like Braskem are leading in bio-based ethylene production, with Braskem's bio-based polyethylene brand holding a 29% market share [16]. - Other countries, including India and South Korea, are also accelerating their bio-based projects, indicating a competitive race in the bio-based olefins sector [16][17]. - Chinese companies are exploring unique pathways in bio-based olefins, with Sinopec successfully producing bio-based polypropylene, demonstrating market demand for green products [17][21]. Group 4: Technical Insights - Ethanol dehydration is the mainstream method for producing bio-based ethylene due to its mature technology and high product purity, allowing direct substitution for oil-based ethylene [20]. - The chemical formula for ethanol dehydration indicates that 1 ton of ethanol can produce a maximum of 0.608 tons of ethylene, highlighting the cost implications of using ethanol as a raw material [22]. Group 5: Future Implications - The investment by Japan's chemical giants signifies a critical shift towards low-carbon markets, with bio-based olefins representing a significant growth opportunity in the global chemical industry [11][20]. - The potential for bio-based olefins to capture even 5% of the ethylene market could translate into a multi-billion dollar industry, particularly in China, which is the largest consumer of ethylene [20][21].