白银彻底杀疯了

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in silver prices, which have reached approximately $118 per ounce, marking a significant increase of over 175% from early 2025 when prices were below $30 per ounce. This surge is attributed to structural changes in the silver market, driven by industrial demand and supply constraints [5][10][22]. Group 1: Price Surge - Silver prices have continued to rise, reaching around $118 per ounce, following a weekend where prices surpassed $100 [5][9]. - The increase in silver prices has outpaced that of gold, with silver's price rising over 175% in the past year compared to gold's performance [10][22]. - The gold-silver ratio has narrowed to approximately 50, indicating that silver is breaking free from its historical role as a mere companion to gold [10][12]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - Industrial demand for silver now accounts for over 60% of total silver demand, with solar energy, artificial intelligence, and electric vehicles being the primary drivers [14][16]. - The solar industry has seen a significant increase in silver consumption due to technological advancements, with silver usage in solar cells rising by 30% to 100% depending on the technology [15][16]. - The demand for silver in AI infrastructure and electric vehicles is also growing, with AI servers consuming up to 30 kg of silver per unit and electric vehicles using 25 to 50 grams of silver each [16][18]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - Over 70% of global silver production comes from by-products of copper, lead, and zinc mining, making silver supply dependent on the market cycles of these primary metals [18][20]. - The average grade of ore from existing silver mines has decreased by 30% over the past two decades, leading to increased costs and reduced efficiency in silver extraction [18][20]. - A structural shortage in the silver market has persisted for five consecutive years, with a projected supply of 32,100 tons in 2025 against a demand of 35,700 tons, resulting in a shortfall of 3,600 tons [18][20]. Group 4: Policy Changes and Market Dynamics - China's new silver export policy, effective January 1, 2026, is expected to reduce annual silver exports by 4,500 to 5,000 tons, equating to a 15% reduction in global supply [20][22]. - The global silver inventory has reached critical levels, with stock at the London and Shanghai exchanges covering only about 1.2 months of global consumption, below the three-month safety line [20][22]. Group 5: Financial Implications - The financial attributes of silver are changing as industrial demand and supply limitations reshape market dynamics, prompting investors to reassess silver as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity [22][24]. - Major financial institutions have revised their silver price forecasts significantly, with predictions ranging from $110 to $170 per ounce for the first quarter of 2026 [22][24]. - There is a growing trend of silver accumulation globally, with increased demand for physical silver and rising holdings in silver ETFs, indicating heightened interest from both institutional and individual investors [23][24].