第一财经·2026-01-29 12:42Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing efforts by regulatory authorities to address the "involution" issues within the photovoltaic (PV) industry, emphasizing the need for a return to rational competition and sustainable development [2][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The Chinese photovoltaic industry has been a global leader in scale, industrial chain layout, technology, and application, with manufacturing output increasing from 750 billion yuan in 2021 to 1.75 trillion yuan in 2023, and expected to remain above 1 trillion yuan in 2024 [2]. - By 2025, the installed capacity of wind and solar power in China is projected to exceed 1.8 billion kilowatts, with solar power capacity reaching 1.2 billion kilowatts, marking a year-on-year growth of 35.4% [2]. Group 2: Challenges Faced - The rapid expansion of the domestic PV industry has led to significant supply-demand mismatches and chaotic low-price competition, resulting in severe "involution" issues [3]. - From 2022 to 2025, the price of domestic PV modules has dropped from 2 yuan per watt to around 0.6 yuan, while silicon material prices have plummeted from a peak of 300,000 yuan per ton to about 55,000 yuan, causing many companies to sell products below mainstream cash cost lines [4]. - As a result, the industry has faced widespread losses since the fourth quarter of 2023, with major companies like Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, and Tongwei expected to report losses ranging from 60 billion to 100 billion yuan in 2025 [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Actions - In response to the chaotic situation, regulatory authorities have initiated multiple measures to promote "anti-involution" governance in the PV industry, including capacity regulation, curbing low-price competition, and supporting industry self-discipline [5]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for PV products starting April 1, which is seen as a move to end the "rebate subsidy era" and promote rational pricing in foreign markets, ultimately enhancing the industry's international competitiveness [5]. Group 4: Industry Recovery Signs - Benefiting from the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts, the PV industry is reportedly approaching a cyclical bottom, with profitability gradually improving in the main industry chain [6]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, 31 companies reported a total loss of 31.04 billion yuan, with the third quarter loss narrowing by approximately 46.7% to 6.42 billion yuan, and the gross margin for the main industry chain reaching 5.61%, up from 3.64% in the previous quarters [6]. - As of November 2025, the average prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules have increased by 38.9%, 2.2%, 0.4%, and 2.3% respectively compared to the beginning of the year [6].