Canalys·2026-01-30 01:03Core Insights - Omdia's latest research indicates that global smartphone shipments are expected to grow by 2% in 2025, reaching 1.25 billion units, marking the highest level since 2021. All regions except Greater China are projected to see year-on-year growth, while mainland China is expected to experience a slight decline due to underwhelming effects of national subsidy policies in 2025 [1][9] Group 1: Market Performance - In Q4 2025, global smartphone shipments increased by 4% year-on-year, driven by seasonal factors and strong performance from manufacturers. However, rising costs of key components and memory are beginning to suppress shipment forecasts for 2026 [2] - Apple achieved a record annual shipment high in 2025, with iPhone shipments growing by 7% to 240.6 million units, maintaining its position as the largest smartphone manufacturer globally for the third consecutive year. The fourth quarter saw the highest single-quarter iPhone shipments, with mainland China market growth of 26% driven by strong demand for the iPhone 17 series [5] - Samsung rebounded significantly in 2025 after three consecutive years of decline, with a 7% year-on-year increase in shipments, slightly below Apple's figures. The company ended the year strongly with a 16% increase in Q4 shipments, supported by resilient demand for flagship models and a recovery in the mass market [5] - Xiaomi maintained its top three position in 2025 despite facing challenges at year-end, with a 2% decline in Q4 shipments. The company's strategy of expanding its product range from entry-level to high-end models, along with AIoT products, is central to its value growth [6] - Vivo entered the fourth position for the first time, with a 4% year-on-year increase in shipments to 10.53 million units, benefiting from continued success in the Indian market and stable performance in the domestic market. OPPO ranked fifth, with annual shipments of 10.07 million units, down 3% year-on-year [6] Group 2: Emerging Trends and Challenges - Outside the top five, several manufacturers continued to show positive growth despite a challenging market environment. Honor and Lenovo grew by 11% and 6% respectively, achieving historical highs. Huawei regained the top position in mainland China for the first time in five years, while Nothing became the fastest-growing manufacturer in 2025, with shipments surging by 86% to over 3 million units [7] - Omdia's senior analyst highlighted that while 2025 was positive for most manufacturers, concerns about the outlook for 2026 have emerged. Supply-side pressures on DRAM, NAND, and other semiconductors are causing significant worry among manufacturers, potentially compressing profit margins and forcing price adjustments, which could ultimately suppress consumer demand [9][11] - As market contraction becomes increasingly inevitable in 2026, manufacturers will focus on profitability and explore alternative revenue sources. The current market volatility presents a competitive window for manufacturers, suppliers, and partners to quickly respond to challenges and capture opportunities among upgrade and replacement users [11][12]