证券时报·2026-01-30 04:23Core Viewpoint - The performance of listed securities firms in 2025 is expected to show significant growth, with all 16 firms that have released earnings forecasts indicating positive results, driven by a recovery in the capital market and strategic business developments [1][7][14]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - Zhongtai Securities anticipates a net profit of 1.312 to 1.5 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 40% to 60%, attributed to a rebound in market activity and growth in wealth management and asset management [3]. - Huazhong Securities projects total revenue of 5.064 billion yuan for 2025, a 30.94% increase, with a net profit of 2.104 billion yuan, up 41.64%, due to enhanced core business efforts and market opportunities [4]. - Guosheng Securities expects a net profit of 210 to 280 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 25.44% to 67.25%, driven by increased revenues in brokerage, investment banking, and futures brokerage [5]. - Founder Securities forecasts a net profit of 3.86 to 4.08 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 75% to 85%, primarily due to increased income from wealth management and subsidiary operations [5]. Group 2: Performance Highlights - CITIC Securities reported a net profit of 30.051 billion yuan for the previous year, a 38.46% increase, maintaining steady growth despite a high base [8]. - Guotai Junan is expected to achieve a net profit of 27.533 to 28.006 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 111% to 115%, leveraging brand advantages and operational synergies post-merger [8]. - The net profit growth rate of Guolian Minsheng Securities is projected at 406%, the highest among peers, indicating strong performance recovery [10]. Group 3: Market Context and Future Outlook - The overall performance of the securities industry is closely linked to the recovery of the capital market, with total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeding 413.78 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a historical high [14]. - Analysts suggest that the securities sector is entering a golden period of dual recovery in valuation and performance, supported by favorable policies and an improving market environment [14]. - The current allocation of active funds in the non-bank sector remains significantly low, indicating potential for increased investment in the securities sector as market conditions improve [15].