新闻发布︱国家能源局举行季度例行新闻发布会

Core Viewpoint - The National Energy Administration (NEA) has outlined the energy situation for 2025, emphasizing energy security, green low-carbon transformation, and orderly industry development as key areas of focus for the upcoming years [9][10][12]. Group 1: Energy Supply and Security - By 2025, China's energy supply security will be significantly enhanced, with coal production stable and oil and gas output reaching historical highs, including a 1.5% increase in crude oil production and a 6.2% increase in natural gas production [9][10]. - The electricity supply will remain stable, supported by the commissioning of several ultra-high voltage direct current transmission projects, improving the interconnectivity of the power system [9][10]. Group 2: Green Low-Carbon Transformation - The development of renewable energy will accelerate, with new wind and solar installations exceeding 430 million kilowatts, bringing the total installed capacity to over 1.8 billion kilowatts, and renewable energy generation accounting for over 60% of total power generation [9][10]. - Renewable energy generation is projected to reach approximately 4 trillion kilowatt-hours, surpassing the combined electricity consumption of the 27 EU countries [9][10]. Group 3: Industry Development - The photovoltaic industry will undergo comprehensive regulation, with polysilicon and wafer prices expected to rise by 52% and 35.6%, respectively, by the end of 2025 [10]. - The price of thermal coal at the port is projected to reach 690 yuan per ton, reflecting a 75 yuan increase from the lowest point of the year [10]. Group 4: Winter Energy Supply Assurance - The overall temperature this winter is expected to be close to or slightly warmer than the historical average, but with frequent cold spells, leading to record-breaking electricity loads, including a peak load of 1.433 billion kilowatts on January 21 [12][13]. - The NEA is ensuring stable energy supply through robust monitoring and coordination, with sufficient fuel reserves and optimized electricity supply strategies [13][14]. Group 5: New Energy Storage Development - By the end of 2025, the installed capacity of new energy storage is expected to reach 136 million kilowatts, a growth of 84% compared to the end of 2024, with an average storage duration of 2.58 hours [19][22]. - The North China region will account for the largest share of new energy storage installations, with significant contributions from provinces like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [20][21]. Group 6: Electricity Market Development - The total electricity trading volume in 2025 is projected to reach 6.64 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, with market-based transactions accounting for 64% of total electricity consumption [26][27]. - Cross-regional electricity trading is expected to grow significantly, reaching 1.59 trillion kilowatt-hours, marking an 11.6% increase from the previous year [26][27]. Group 7: Green Certificate Market - The green certificate market is anticipated to see a substantial increase, with a total of 930 million certificates traded in 2025, representing a 120% year-on-year growth [40][41]. - The average trading price of green certificates is expected to stabilize and rise, with a projected average price of approximately 4.14 yuan per certificate in the second half of 2025, a 90% increase from the first half [40][41].