【安泰科】工业硅周评—供需博弈加剧 市场震荡寻底（2026年1月22–28日）

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with a shift in focus from "weak demand" to "weak supply-demand balance" as production cuts are implemented by suppliers [1][2]. Supply Side Summary - The supply of industrial silicon is tightening, with low operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan, and some companies in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia planning maintenance or production cuts due to ongoing losses [1][2]. - A major enterprise in Xinjiang is expected to implement production cuts starting in February, potentially affecting about 50% of its capacity for approximately one month, which has positively influenced market sentiment [1]. Demand Side Summary - Overall downstream demand remains weak, with the polysilicon price stable but inventory levels continuing to rise, limiting the efficiency of procurement despite short-term boosts from export tax policy changes [2]. - The organic silicon market is experiencing low trading activity, and aluminum alloy demand is marginally weakening, leading to primarily just-in-time purchasing for industrial silicon [2]. Price Summary - As of January 28, the industrial silicon futures price was reported at 8,760 yuan/ton, with a slight decline of 60 yuan/ton [1]. - The national average price for industrial silicon was stable at 9,245 yuan/ton, with specific regional prices in Xinjiang at 8,810 yuan/ton, Yunnan at 10,005 yuan/ton, and Sichuan at 10,050 yuan/ton [3][4]. - Export FOB prices have decreased by 50 USD/ton due to weak overseas demand [1][2].