碳酸锂行情日报：有色板块大跌，锂盐以退为进？

Market Changes - On January 30, the spot settlement guidance price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was 158,500 CNY/ton, a decrease of 6,000 CNY from the previous working day, influenced by a continuous decline in market conditions, leading to increased selling enthusiasm among some traders, while major lithium salt manufacturers remain in a supply-demand imbalance [1] - The settlement guidance price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) was 158,000 CNY/ton, down 3,000 CNY from the previous working day [1] - In the futures market, most contracts hit the limit down, with the main contract closing at 148,200 CNY/ton, a drop of 18,300 CNY from the previous working day, and a noticeable decrease in open interest [1] - The net short position for lithium carbonate main contracts decreased by 29.5%, indicating a weakening of short-term downward momentum [1] ICC Lithium Battery Settlement Prices - The prices for various lithium products on January 30 compared to January 29 are as follows: - Lithium concentrate: 2,170 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY - Battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%): 15.85 CNY/kg, down 0.6 CNY - Lithium hydroxide (56.5%): 15.8 CNY/kg, down 0.3 CNY - Lithium iron phosphate (power type): 5.36 CNY/kg, down 0.1 CNY - Ternary materials: 20.75 CNY/kg, down 0.2 CNY - Prismatic energy storage cells (lithium iron phosphate): 0.375 CNY/Wh, unchanged [2] Industry Focus - In Australia, the lithium ore shipment volume from Bunbury Port in January 2026 was 158,900 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 58.58% and a year-on-year increase of 0.69% [5] Company Insights - The current average price level for energy storage cells indicates that second-tier companies can withstand lithium carbonate prices around 154,000 CNY [4] - The recent drop in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to the decline in precious metals and increased financial regulation, as well as the acceptance levels of downstream users. Rapid price increases have led to some energy storage projects being stalled, potentially affecting short-term project deliveries [6] - Looking ahead, various regions are gradually implementing energy storage capacity compensation policies, which are expected to raise the internal rate of return (IRR) conservatively by 1%-2%, with some areas seeing higher adjustments. The implementation of energy storage subsidy policies is likely to significantly influence the price trends of lithium carbonate in February and March [6]