黄金日内振幅近10%，贵金属牛市结束了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is in an extremely optimistic state, with a significant increase in the probability of short-term corrections, fluctuations, or pullbacks due to overheated sentiment [1][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 29, 2026, the precious metals market experienced a massive sell-off, with gold prices plummeting over $400 to around $5100 per ounce within half an hour, marking a nearly 10% daily fluctuation [2]. - COMEX gold futures fell more than 7% from historical highs, dropping below $5200 per ounce, while silver prices saw even larger declines, exceeding 10% [4]. - Gold prices surged dramatically at the beginning of 2026, breaking through $5000 per ounce for the first time on January 26, and reaching a peak of $5598.75 per ounce on January 29 [5]. Group 2: Market Drivers and Risks - The significant correction in precious metals is attributed to three main risks: the Federal Reserve not continuing interest rate cuts in January, a decline in safe-haven buying reflected by a drop in the VIX index, and concentrated profit-taking by long positions in precious metals [2][6]. - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Venezuela/Iran, previously accelerated the rise in gold and silver prices, while a weaker dollar also contributed to this trend [2][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the recent volatility, the adjustment in precious metals does not indicate the end of a bull market, as there are no signs of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy or liquidity tightening [8]. - Long-term demand for gold remains strong due to central bank purchases and the need for hedging against risks, which will continue to support precious metals [9][11]. - Analysts suggest that investors should be cautious of short-term corrections and avoid blindly chasing high prices, recommending to wait for price stabilization before re-entering the market [11].