今夜全球屏息，特朗普将亮出那张撼动市场的“底牌”

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the new Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump will have significant and far-reaching implications for the Fed's credibility as a serious inflation-targeting central bank [1] Group 1: Candidates and Their Implications - The potential candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair include Kevin Walsh, Rick Rieder, and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, with Kevin Hassett's chances diminishing after Trump expressed a desire for him to remain in the White House [1][2] - Each candidate has distinct advantages and disadvantages based on their professional backgrounds, familiarity with monetary policy, relationship with the President, and expected commitment to maintaining the Fed's independence [2] - The new Chair will face skepticism regarding their ability to resist presidential directives, particularly concerning aggressive cuts to the federal funds rate, which could impact inflation [2] Group 2: Challenges for the New Chair - The new Chair will encounter challenges within the Federal Reserve, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions are made by majority vote among its 12 members, and the Chair's influence depends on their ability to persuade others [3] - A unique power of the Chair is to serve as the Fed's chief spokesperson, particularly during press conferences following FOMC decisions, which requires a comprehensive understanding of the Fed's operations [3] Group 3: Impact on Powell and Future Appointments - Trump's choice for the new Chair may influence whether Jerome Powell continues as a Governor; if the new Chair is perceived as unable to uphold the Fed's independence, Powell may opt to stay [5] - If Powell decides not to remain, it could create another appointment opportunity for Trump, potentially allowing him to control a majority of the Board, which could have long-term implications for the Fed's governance [5] - The new Chair's performance could affect their chances for re-nomination by future presidents, with successful leadership potentially leading to continued tenure, while failure could result in asset price declines and diminished Fed credibility [5]