惊魂跳水！白银一度重挫35%，贵金属狂潮已见顶？

Core Viewpoint - The market's concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have eased following President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, leading to a significant rise in the dollar and a sharp decline in precious metals prices [3][4]. Market Reaction - The COMEX silver price plummeted over 35%, reaching a low of $74 per ounce, while COMEX gold fell more than 10%, nearing $4,700. This sell-off extended to the entire precious metals market, with LME platinum and palladium futures dropping over 15%, entering a technical bear market [3][4]. - Analysts attribute the panic selling to profit-taking and crowded trading positions, exacerbated by leveraged positions being liquidated, which amplified market volatility [3][5]. Investor Sentiment - The market is currently trading on "Warsh's hawkish bias" expectations, which has contributed to a stabilization of the dollar and a reduction in the asymmetric risks of a prolonged dollar depreciation, thus causing the significant drop in gold and silver prices [4][5]. - The recent market behavior is characterized as irrational, with the precious metals market being a popular asset for day traders and short-term investors, leading to a buildup of leveraged positions that were vulnerable to price drops [5][6]. Precious Metals Demand - Over the past 12 months, various factors such as market volatility, dollar depreciation, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over the Fed's independence have driven precious metal prices upward. However, the recent decline may reflect a reassessment of concentrated holding risks in the market [6][9]. - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached a record high, with total demand surpassing 5,000 tons in 2025, valued at $555 billion, marking a 45% year-on-year increase. However, central bank purchases have decreased, indicating a shift in the primary drivers of gold demand from central banks to various investors [8][9]. Future Projections - Analysts suggest that if private investors increase their gold allocation from 3% to 4.6% by reducing long-term bond holdings, gold prices could theoretically rise to between $8,000 and $8,500 per ounce. However, the current overbought status of gold and silver suggests a risk of profit-taking and price corrections in the short term [10]. - The long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact, with $5,000 per ounce seen as a reasonable support level for adjustments [10].