近60万亿定存到期，利息收入保卫战打响

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is currently focused on the flow of a large amount of time deposits maturing in 2026, with a strong demand for alternative investment options due to the historically low interest rates on three-year time deposits, which have fallen to 1.25%, even below the repo rate. It is expected that there will be a trend of converting time deposits into wealth management products in 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Trends in Time Deposits - In early 2026, approximately 57 trillion yuan of time deposits are expected to mature, primarily concentrated in the early part of the year, leading to significant decisions by depositors regarding their investments [3]. - The current low interest rate environment is prompting a "defense of deposits" battle among banks, with state-owned and joint-stock banks launching structured deposits and "fixed income+" wealth management products to attract customers [4]. - The interest rates for three-year time deposits have decreased from 3.1% three years ago to a maximum of 1.8% currently, causing depositors to seek reliable investment options [5]. Group 2: Depositor Behavior - Depositors like Zhang Qing are unwilling to consider wealth management products with yields below 3%, indicating a strong demand for higher returns [2][3]. - There is a noticeable trend where depositors with over 200,000 yuan in maturing deposits show a higher demand for wealth management products, with many willing to invest significant portions of their deposits to cover living expenses [8]. - Middle-aged depositors are more likely to invest their maturing deposits into wealth management products compared to older depositors, as they have greater financial responsibilities [8]. Group 3: Regional Differences in Wealth Management - There is a significant disparity in the availability of wealth management products between first-tier cities and county-level banks, with many smaller banks lacking the capacity to offer competitive products [10]. - As local residents increasingly turn to larger banks or internet banks for better investment options, there is a migration of deposits from county-level banks to larger institutions [12]. - Local banks are struggling to retain deposits as younger and middle-aged depositors seek better returns, leading to a decline in renewal rates for maturing deposits [12]. Group 4: Bank Strategies - To retain deposits, many local banks are considering raising interest rates on certain deposit products, but this may not be sufficient to meet depositor expectations [15][16]. - Banks are also exploring partnerships with wealth management subsidiaries to enhance their product offerings and meet the liquidity needs of depositors [16][17]. - Major banks are increasing their outreach efforts to attract deposits by promoting structured deposits and wealth management products in local communities [17].