黄金单日蒸发 4 万亿美元，科技股被迫陪葬！抄底窗口何时开启？

Core Viewpoint - The recent plunge in precious metals is not due to a fundamental collapse but rather a result of high-leverage long positions being liquidated, triggered by expectations surrounding Kevin Warsh's nomination to the Federal Reserve [3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gold market experienced a dramatic drop, with nearly $4 trillion evaporating in market value, and silver, platinum, and palladium also saw significant declines [5][8]. - The surge in gold prices to over $5,600 per ounce was followed by a rapid decline due to a precarious position structure, with the RSI exceeding 90, indicating extreme overbought conditions [8][9]. - The announcement of Kevin Warsh's nomination led to a strong rebound in the dollar index, causing leveraged positions in gold to face severe losses, triggering a chain reaction that affected major tech stocks [9][10]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historical patterns from 2008 and 2020 suggest that precious metals often lead declines in the stock market during liquidity crises, indicating that the recent drop may be a cleansing of speculative excess rather than the end of a bull market [12][14]. - The current situation is likened to a "hard landing test" for the over-inflated precious metals market, suggesting that the market is undergoing a necessary correction [14]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on three key indicators for identifying potential bottoming in the gold market: the slope of the dollar index, the progress of CME margin adjustments, and the financial health of mining companies [19][21][23]. - A significant signal for market recovery would be a decline in the dollar index and a stabilization of gold prices, alongside a reduction in margin requirements by CME [20][22]. - Mining companies with strong cash flow and low all-in sustaining costs (AISC) are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, especially when their stock prices fall to more reasonable valuation multiples [23][24].