铝库存只够用12天？新能源造出下一个“金属之王”

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing a significant supply shortage, driven primarily by increasing demand from the renewable energy sector, while global production capacity is constrained due to various regulatory and economic factors [4][6][12]. Group 1: Demand Drivers - The demand for aluminum is being significantly influenced by the renewable energy sector, as aluminum is essential for electric vehicles, solar panels, and wind energy infrastructure [7][8]. - By 2025, the average aluminum usage per electric vehicle in China is expected to reach 245 kg, contributing to a projected market size of over 200 billion yuan for aluminum in the electric vehicle sector by 2030 [7][9]. - The rapid growth in renewable energy installations, with solar and wind power capacities increasing by 41.9% and 22.4% respectively, is further driving aluminum demand [9][10]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - Global aluminum production is facing severe constraints, with China's production capacity nearing its limit due to regulatory measures aimed at reducing carbon emissions [13][14]. - The energy-intensive nature of aluminum production, requiring approximately 14,000 kWh of electricity per ton, is exacerbating supply issues as energy costs rise [13][16]. - Recent shutdowns of aluminum smelters, such as the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique, highlight the challenges faced by producers due to high electricity prices [14]. Group 3: Market Conditions - Current aluminum inventories are critically low, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) reporting stock levels sufficient for only 12-15 days of global consumption, far below the 25-30 days needed for market stability [18][20]. - The price of aluminum has surged, with U.S. buyers paying a premium of approximately 68% over LME prices, indicating a tightening market [19][20]. - The overall market dynamics suggest that the recent price increases in aluminum are not solely driven by industry-specific factors but are also influenced by broader commodity market trends and geopolitical factors [22].