碳酸锂行情日报：鹰派踩踏有色，锂价梦回元旦

Market Overview - On February 2, the spot settlement guidance price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was 152,500 CNY/ton, a decrease of 6,000 CNY from the previous working day, indicating increased market caution [1] - The settlement guidance price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) was also 152,500 CNY/ton, down 5,000 CNY from the previous working day [1] - Futures prices fell significantly due to the impact of Kevin Warsh's hawkish nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman, with the main contract closing at 132,440 CNY/ton, a drop of 21,540 CNY, returning to levels seen after the New Year [1] ICC Lithium Battery Settlement Prices - As of February 2, the prices for various lithium products showed a downward trend compared to January 30: - Lithium concentrate (6.0%): 2,110 CNY/ton, down 60 CNY [2] - Battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%): 15.25 CNY/kg, down 0.6 CNY [2] - Lithium hydroxide (56.5%): 15.3 CNY/kg, down 0.5 CNY [2] - Lithium iron phosphate (power type): 5.26 CNY/kg, down 0.1 CNY [2] - Ternary materials (811): 20.65 CNY/kg, down 0.1 CNY [2] - Prismatic energy storage cells (lithium iron phosphate): 0.375 CNY/Wh, unchanged [2] Industry Insights - The current average price level for energy storage cells suggests that second-tier companies can bear lithium carbonate prices around 152,000 CNY [4] - The recent sharp decline in lithium carbonate prices is viewed as a technical adjustment following a rapid price increase, with main funds acting in accordance with market trends [6] - Despite the price drop, the fundamental market conditions for lithium carbonate remain unchanged, maintaining a tight balance overall, and prices below 150,000 CNY can still support demand growth in energy storage without considering subsidy impacts [6] Additional Industry Data - In January, lithium ore shipments from Esperance Port in Australia totaled 48,100 tons, a decrease of 47.15% month-on-month and 29.17% year-on-year [9] - BYD's sales in January reached 210,000 units, with a 43.3% growth in overseas markets; however, overall market sales saw a decline of over 30% year-on-year due to policy adjustments and holiday impacts, with expectations of recovery post-Spring Festival [9]