东京出生人数或10年来转增，“砸钱”出成果？

Core Viewpoint - The birth rate in Tokyo is showing signs of recovery, with a 0.97% increase in births from January to November 2025 compared to the previous year, potentially marking the first annual increase in a decade if the trend continues [2][4]. Group 1: Birth Rate Trends - The number of births in Tokyo for January to November 2025 is reported at 81,063, reflecting a 0.97% year-on-year increase, contrasting with an average annual decrease of 3.7% over the past five years [4]. - The first half of 2025 (January to June) has already seen a 0.3% growth in births, indicating a significant shift in trend [4]. - If the annual birth figures remain positive, it would be a notable achievement for the Tokyo government, which has been criticized for its declining birth rates [5]. Group 2: Government Policies - Tokyo's government, under Governor Yuriko Koike, has implemented various child-rearing support policies, including cash subsidies, free childcare, and expanded medical expense assistance, with a budget of approximately 2.2 trillion yen for 2026 [4]. - The policies are designed without income restrictions, allowing even higher-income dual-income families to benefit, which may encourage them to have more children [4]. - The effectiveness of these policies is being closely monitored, as an increase in birth rates would serve as a key indicator of their success [5]. Group 3: Public Support and Regional Impact - The comprehensive child-rearing support policies have garnered significant public support, with surveys indicating that issues related to children and childcare were the most frequently mentioned topics among Tokyo residents [8]. - However, the strong support policies in Tokyo are perceived as creating disparities with surrounding regions, where birth rates have declined, such as in Sagamihara (down 7.6%) and Kawasaki (down 2.6%) [8]. - There is a concern that the trend of population concentration in financially robust areas like Tokyo may intensify, leading to further regional disparities [8]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The Tokyo government plans to establish a consultative body to collaborate with the central government on child-rearing policies, aiming to extend the positive effects of increased birth rates to surrounding regions [9]. - Addressing the regional disparities while enhancing local vitality will require coordination and cooperation with other areas and the national government [9].