美债市场关注财政部季度再融资拍卖计划，仍在计价沃什时代美联储

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury is expected to maintain a stable debt issuance policy in the upcoming quarterly refinancing auction announcement, despite pressures from fiscal deficits and changing government policy objectives. Any slight adjustments in wording could trigger significant market volatility [5][6]. Group 1: Quarterly Refinancing Plan - The market anticipates that the upcoming quarterly refinancing auction will have a scale of $125 billion, consistent with the levels since May 2024, including $58 billion in 3-year notes, $42 billion in 10-year notes, and $25 billion in 30-year notes [6]. - There is speculation that the Treasury may reduce the issuance of long-term bonds, potentially eliminating the 20-year bond or decreasing the supply of 30-year bonds, while increasing the auction scale of Treasury bills or 2-year notes to alleviate upward pressure on yields [6][7]. - The 10-year Treasury yield is currently around 4.25%, which is over 80 basis points higher than the 12-month Treasury bill, increasing the cost of issuing long-term Treasuries [6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve's recent actions, including the purchase of $40 billion in Treasury bills per month until April, have alleviated pressure on the Treasury to sell bills to the private sector, providing space for short-term financing [9]. - Kevin Warsh, the newly appointed Fed Chair, is expected to advocate for a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, which could pose upward risks to long-term Treasury yields [9][10]. - Market reactions to Warsh's appointment indicate a dual expectation: a potential early rate cut leading to lower short-term yields, while the anticipated reduction in the Fed's balance sheet could increase long-term yields, resulting in a "bear steepening" of the yield curve [10]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts predict that the Treasury may maintain the current auction scale for the next quarter but could cancel the 20-year bond issuance due to weak demand [7]. - There is a possibility of increasing the issuance of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) to maintain their market share, with several banks forecasting at least one TIPS auction scale increase in the upcoming quarter [7]. - Warsh's appointment is viewed as a stabilizing factor for the Fed's independence and financial system stability, with expectations that his hawkish stance may not be as aggressive as previously thought, potentially aiding in controlling inflation expectations and overall borrowing costs [11].