一线城市二手房成交集体回暖

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in first-tier cities is showing resilience during the traditional off-season, indicating a potential recovery phase after a prolonged adjustment period [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In January, Beijing's second-hand housing transaction volume exceeded 15,000 units, remaining stable above 14,000 units for three consecutive months [5]. - Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions reached 22,834 units in January, marking a five-year high and also maintaining over 22,000 units for three months [7]. - Shenzhen recorded 6,802 second-hand housing transactions in January, a 45.5% year-on-year increase, reaching a ten-month high [10]. - Guangzhou's second-hand housing transactions totaled 8,881 units in January, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 1.07% [10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increase in transactions in Beijing and Shanghai is accompanied by a decrease in listings, indicating a tightening supply and a shift in seller sentiment [5][8]. - In Beijing, the number of listings dropped to 125,600 units, a 4.7% decrease from the end of 2025, reflecting reduced supply pressure [6]. - In Shanghai, the number of listings fell from approximately 120,000 units in April 2025 to 89,000 units in January 2026, a cumulative decline of 26% over five months [8]. Group 3: Buyer Sentiment and Trends - The market is experiencing a shift in seller attitudes, with many opting to withdraw listings or convert properties to rentals rather than engage in price competition [8]. - The demand for school district properties is driving transactions, as parents prefer to secure homes before the school admission season [12]. - A survey indicated that 43% of respondents believe prices will stabilize, while 30% are optimistic about price increases in the Shenzhen market [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts predict that the current trends suggest an early emergence of a "small spring" in the market, with expectations of strong transaction volumes in March and April [9]. - The overall sentiment is that the second-hand housing market is entering a bottoming phase, with price adjustments making housing more accessible [12].