全球LNG将进入新一轮“买方市场”

Core Viewpoint - The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply is expected to shift from tight to relatively loose by 2026, entering a new "buyer’s market" due to the ramp-up of new production capacity [2][3]. Supply Growth - At least 35 million tons per year of new LNG capacity is projected to come online globally by 2026, primarily from the U.S. and Qatar, with total global LNG supply expected to reach between 460 million to 484 million tons, reflecting a potential annual growth rate of up to 10% [5]. - The International Energy Agency indicates that nearly 300 billion cubic meters of new LNG capacity will be operational annually from 2025 to 2030, marking the largest wave of LNG capacity growth to date [5]. - Key projects contributing to this growth include the Golden Pass LNG project and the North Field expansion in Qatar, with the former expected to start operations in mid-2026 [5]. Price Pressure - The influx of new capacity is anticipated to exert downward pressure on prices, with Asian spot LNG prices expected to average between $9.90 and $12.45 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2026, and European benchmark prices projected to fall to between $9.50 and $9.74 per MMBtu [6]. - Goldman Sachs has revised its 2026 Henry Hub natural gas price forecast down to $3.75 per MMBtu, maintaining a 2027 forecast of $3.80 per MMBtu [6]. Demand Dynamics - Asia remains a robust LNG demand market, with 64% of global LNG exports directed to the region in 2025. Demand in Asia is expected to grow by 4% to 7% in 2026, driven by price declines and increased purchases from India, which is projected to see a demand increase of 5 to 10 million tons [8]. - Europe is also set to absorb additional supplies, with LNG imports expected to rise by 22 million tons to approximately 145 million tons in 2026, driven by winter inventory replenishment and lower natural gas prices [9]. Emerging Markets - Sub-Saharan Africa is emerging as a significant LNG supply corridor, with exports expected to surge from 35.7 billion cubic meters in 2024 to 98 billion cubic meters by 2034, a nearly 175% increase [11]. - The Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project is highlighted as a key contributor, with an estimated recoverable resource of over 150 trillion cubic feet, and production expected to commence in 2025 [11]. Market Considerations - As global LNG supply enters a new growth phase, supply-side players must reassess gas sourcing and ensure reliable downstream facilities for regasification, as structural oversupply becomes a concern [12].