私募大洗牌！量化称“王”，外资险资抄底入局！百亿只是入场券……

Core Viewpoint - The private equity industry is at a significant turning point in 2025, with a shift from subjective strategies to quantitative strategies becoming the dominant force, alongside a notable increase in the number of firms managing over 500 billion yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Structural Changes - In 2025, the number of quantitative private equity firms surpassed subjective firms for the first time, marking a historic shift in the industry [2]. - By the end of 2025, the number of billion-yuan private equity managers rebounded to 112, close to the historical high of 117 in early 2022, with a total of nearly 19,000 products under management [2]. - As of January 23, 2026, the number of billion-yuan private equity firms reached 118, with 55 being quantitative, 48 subjective, and 12 mixed strategies [5]. Group 2: Performance and Trends - The average returns of billion-yuan quantitative private equity products showed positive growth in 2025, significantly outperforming subjective strategies [6]. - The rise of quantitative strategies is supported by improved market conditions, investor demand for stable returns, and advancements in technology [7]. Group 3: Head of the Pyramid - The first tier of private equity firms has expanded, with over 15 firms managing more than 500 billion yuan, including both quantitative and subjective strategies [8][11]. - The "billion" threshold remains, but its significance has changed, with top firms now requiring management capacities of 700 to 800 billion yuan to be considered competitive [11][12]. Group 4: Influx of Foreign and Insurance Capital - By early 2026, the number of billion-yuan foreign private equity firms increased to 2, and insurance capital firms to 3, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape [13][14]. - The entry of foreign and insurance capital is transforming the private equity ecosystem, moving from high volatility to a focus on long-term, stable returns [14]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The competition in the private equity industry is expected to evolve beyond mere scale, emphasizing the need for robust investment capabilities and diverse strategy systems [14]. - The transition to a quantitative-led era does not signify the end of subjective strategies but indicates a more rational and efficient market is forming [14].