寒武纪半日蒸发700亿，一张截图引发的闪崩

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the stock price of Chinese AI chip company Cambricon, highlighting the impact of market rumors regarding its revenue guidance for 2026, which significantly deviated from market expectations [6][9][10]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On February 3, Cambricon's stock price dropped by 12.88%, resulting in a market capitalization decline from approximately 530 billion to 456.3 billion yuan, evaporating over 70 billion yuan in value [6][13]. - The market was unsettled by rumors suggesting that Cambricon's 2026 revenue guidance was only 20 billion yuan, far below the anticipated range of 30 billion to 50 billion yuan [9][15]. - Following the rumors, Cambricon issued a statement denying any such revenue guidance and emphasized that it had not organized any small-scale communications regarding financial forecasts [10][16]. Group 2: Industry Context - The AI chip industry is at a critical juncture, characterized by both significant growth potential and increasing competition among over ten companies, including Cambricon, Moore Threads, and others [16][22]. - Major players like Alibaba's Tianshu and Kunlun chips are entering the market, intensifying competition and potentially altering market dynamics [16][17]. - The scarcity of related concept stocks in the market is expected to diminish as more companies, including Kunlun and Tianshu, go public [17]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Cambricon recently announced a strong performance forecast for 2025, projecting revenues between 6 billion to 7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 410.87% to 496.02% [18][19]. - The company also expects to achieve a net profit of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion yuan, a significant turnaround from a loss of 450 million yuan in the previous year [19]. - However, there are concerns regarding the fourth-quarter performance, with expected revenues of only 1.393 billion to 2.393 billion yuan, indicating a potential slowdown in growth [21]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment - Market sentiment is shifting as investors reassess the valuation logic of AI chip companies, particularly in light of the increasing number of firms entering the market [22]. - The financing balance as a percentage of market capitalization for Cambricon, Moore Threads, and Nuxi is 2.89%, 8.26%, and 9.55% respectively, suggesting that market fluctuations could exacerbate stock price declines [22]. - Investors are questioning the sustainability of the current market landscape, speculating on the potential for a significant number of companies to fail or experience drastic declines in market value [22].