利多利空交织，日股短期或维持震荡局面

Market Overview - The Nikkei average index significantly rose on February 3, reaching a new historical high since January 14, with an increase of 2065 points (4%) to close at 54720 points, marking the largest gain since the victory of Prime Minister Kishi in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election in October 2025 [2][4] - The market is experiencing strong expectations for stock price increases, but there remains caution regarding risks, as indicated by the Nikkei average volatility index (VI) reaching 36, the highest level in about two months [5] Investor Sentiment - Investor psychology has improved, driven by the upcoming House of Representatives election on February 8, with a strong historical trend of buying before elections, as 21 out of the last 25 instances since 1952 saw the Nikkei average rise before voting [5] - The expectation that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will secure a majority in the upcoming election has been particularly highlighted, contributing to a 2% increase in the index as of February 3 [5] External Influences - The rise in overseas stock markets, including a 1% increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, has also contributed to the positive sentiment in the Japanese market [5] - Strong performance in the U.S. manufacturing sector, as indicated by the ISM manufacturing index, has reinforced perceptions of a robust U.S. economy [5] Corporate Performance - Approximately 70% of Japanese listed companies reported increased final profits as of January 30, with the proportion of profit-increasing companies reaching the highest level in four years, driven by investments in generative AI [7] - Notable companies like Kyocera and TDK saw their stock prices rise by 12% after raising their earnings forecasts for the fiscal year ending in March 2026 [7] Market Dynamics - There is a notable reduction in short positions by investors who previously bet on stock price corrections, while those who missed the rally are beginning to buy in [7] - However, the price-to-earnings ratio (PER) based on the Nikkei average is approximately 20 times, the highest level in about 13 years excluding the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating potential overvaluation and susceptibility to profit-taking [7] - There is a clear trend of net selling among investors, with many choosing to reduce their holdings during the stock price surge [7]