乘联分会·2026-02-04 08:31Core Viewpoint - The article predicts a 25% growth in sales for Chinese new energy passenger vehicle manufacturers by 2025, aligning with the growth expectations set for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2]. Group 1: Market Predictions - The end of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy in December 2025 is expected to lead to a recovery period in January 2026, with some consumers likely to make purchases in December to benefit from the policy [2]. - January 2023 saw a decline of 8% in new energy vehicle sales due to the withdrawal of subsidies, while January 2024 experienced a positive growth despite the anticipated policy changes [2]. - The late timing of the 2026 Spring Festival and contributions from exports have positively influenced January's sales performance [2]. Group 2: Sales Data - According to the latest data from the Passenger Car Association, manufacturers with sales exceeding 10,000 units in December accounted for 93% of the total new energy passenger vehicle wholesale sales for that month [3]. - Preliminary data for January indicates that these manufacturers achieved sales of 830,000 units, leading to an estimated total of 900,000 new energy passenger vehicles sold nationwide in January, reflecting a 1% year-on-year growth [4][3]. Group 3: Leading Manufacturers - Key manufacturers such as GAC Aion, XPeng Motors, and Great Wall Motors reported significant sales figures in January, with GAC Aion leading at 21,635 units sold [8]. - Other notable performances include XPeng Motors with 20,011 units, Great Wall Motors with 18,019 units, and FAW Hongqi with 8,265 units [8]. - The total estimated sales for manufacturers exceeding 10,000 units in January amounted to 832,461, representing 93% of the total market share for that month [8].