CNESA报告分享 | 《储能市场化容量补偿机制研究》

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the research findings on the market-oriented capacity compensation mechanism for energy storage, emphasizing its importance for the sustainable development of the energy storage industry in China [14][15]. Group 1: Industry Development Status and Core Bottlenecks - The new energy storage industry in China has experienced explosive growth, with an installed capacity of 144.7 GW by the end of 2025, marking an 84.8% year-on-year increase [20]. - The cancellation of the prerequisite for capacity leasing has led to a significant reduction in demand for traditional capacity leasing models, resulting in low project returns and negative internal rates of return (IRR) in some provinces [27]. - The current capacity compensation mechanism is not unified across the country, leading to discrepancies in local pilot policies and a lack of standardized reliable capacity accounting [27] [38]. Group 2: Power System Capacity Demand Analysis - By 2030, the total electricity consumption in China is expected to reach 13.5 trillion kWh, with non-fossil energy sources projected to account for 65% of installed capacity [30]. - The demand for energy storage capacity is expected to reach around 300 GW by 2030 to meet the capacity adequacy requirements of the power system [32]. Group 3: Comparison of Domestic and International Capacity Assurance Mechanisms - Various countries have developed capacity assurance mechanisms to address the "missing money" problem in electricity markets, including capacity market mechanisms, scarcity pricing mechanisms, and capacity compensation mechanisms [35]. - China's current capacity assurance mechanism primarily relies on capacity compensation, with limited pilot programs for new energy storage capacity compensation [38]. Group 4: Reliable Capacity Calculation Method Design - Reliable capacity calculation is crucial for the effective operation of capacity mechanisms, aiming to quantify the capacity value of different energy storage technologies and ensure fair market participation [49]. - Several methods for calculating reliable capacity are proposed, including historical output assessments and effective load-carrying capability (ELCC) evaluations [50][51]. Group 5: Phased Implementation Plan for Capacity Pricing Mechanism - The implementation plan for the capacity pricing mechanism is divided into three phases: establishing a unified capacity price compensation mechanism for the generation side, transitioning to a market-based capacity market mechanism, and creating a unified capacity market [58]. - The short-term goal is to establish a unified capacity price compensation mechanism by 2027, while the long-term goal is to create a competitive capacity market by 2035 [61][65].