全球能源转型遇电力系统安全梗阻，中国如何破局

Core Viewpoint - The focus of global energy security is shifting from high-carbon to low-carbon energy, with increasing risks in electricity system safety highlighted by the China National Petroleum Corporation Economic and Technological Research Institute [3][4]. Group 1: Global Energy Supply and Demand - In 2025, global fossil energy supply is expected to grow by 1.9% year-on-year, while demand will increase by 0.9%, indicating a further easing of supply and demand [3]. - Global oil production is projected to rise by 2.4% and consumption by 0.7%, while natural gas production is expected to grow by 3.1% and consumption by 1.4% [3]. - Coal production is anticipated to increase by 0.5% and consumption by 0.7%, with a generally balanced supply situation for coal [3]. Group 2: Electricity Demand and System Challenges - Global electricity demand grew by 3.3% last year, nearly double the growth rate of overall energy demand, and is expected to continue outpacing energy demand growth this year [4]. - The share of traditional power sources is declining, complicating the balance of the electricity system, with renewable energy expected to account for 51.5% of total installed capacity by 2025 [4]. - The share of flexible adjustment power sources, such as pumped storage, is projected to drop to a low of 6.2%, leading to a long-term "triple dilemma" of stability, cleanliness, and balance in the electricity system [4]. Group 3: Recommendations for Energy Development - It is recommended that global energy development prioritize safety, promote collaborative development of various energy types, and enhance investment in energy sectors to solidify energy security [5]. - Attention should be given to electricity balance and grid safety, improving the linkage between fossil energy and electricity markets, and accelerating the construction of high-standard electricity infrastructure [5]. Group 4: China's Energy Security Status - Despite a declining global energy security situation, China's energy security is improving, characterized by strong supply guarantees, accelerated green transformation, and enhanced system collaboration [7]. - In the previous year, China's total energy production reached approximately 5.2 billion tons of standard coal, with a self-sufficiency rate of 84.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous year [7]. - The total installed capacity of renewable energy surpassed 220 million kilowatts, contributing 3.7 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity, with wind and solar power accounting for nearly 50% of the total installed capacity [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook for China's Energy Development - Experts predict that China's energy structure will continue to optimize, with coal undergoing clean and efficient transformations, and oil and gas production increasing to enhance domestic capacity and supply chain resilience [8]. - By 2026, China's total energy consumption is expected to reach 6.35 billion tons of standard coal, with domestic energy production at 5.37 billion tons, further increasing the self-sufficiency rate to 84.6% [8]. - An additional 20 million kilowatts of wind and solar power capacity is anticipated, with a growth rate of approximately 18% for wind and solar electricity generation [8].