机构称14万亿存款或将搬家

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending maturity of a significant amount of deposits in China, estimated to be between 55 trillion to 60 trillion yuan by 2026, which will lead to a reallocation of funds within the banking system and potentially impact various financial products [3][4]. Group 1: Deposit Rates and Trends - Major banks are offering low interest rates on large deposits, with rates around 1.4% to 1.55%, a stark contrast to rates above 5% seen in 2021 [1][2]. - The shift to lower interest rates has led to a psychological erosion among savers, prompting a significant influx of funds back into fixed-term deposits as a safe haven amid market volatility [1][3]. Group 2: Future Implications of Deposit Maturity - By 2026, a large volume of deposits will mature, creating a potential "repricing" and "reallocation" wave in the banking sector, with estimates suggesting that if the renewal rate drops to 80%, around 14 trillion yuan could be at risk of moving out of banks [3][4]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated that the upcoming maturity of long-term deposits will occur in a very different interest rate environment compared to when they were initially deposited [3][4]. Group 3: Fund Reallocation and Market Impact - It is anticipated that over 90% of maturing deposits will remain within the banking system, but an estimated 2 trillion to 4 trillion yuan may flow into wealth management products and public funds, with public funds expected to attract 300 billion to 600 billion yuan [5][4]. - The reallocation of funds is expected to be more of a structural optimization rather than a massive outflow into higher-risk assets, as residents' risk preferences will dictate their investment choices [7][4]. Group 4: Public Fund Strategies - Public funds that are likely to attract the reallocated deposits include money market funds and short-term pure bond funds, which offer liquidity similar to demand deposits and typically yield better returns than one-year fixed deposits [9][4]. - The "fixed income plus" fund products are being tailored to meet varying risk appetites, with a focus on maintaining low volatility and predictable returns [10][11]. Group 5: Misconceptions About Deposit Movements - There are misconceptions regarding the relationship between maturing deposits and "funds moving out" or entering the capital market, as much of the maturing funds will remain within the banking system for marginal optimization [15][4]. - The release of large deposits does not necessarily correlate with increased consumer spending or stock market performance, as historical data shows no significant relationship between the two [15][4].