中国富裕阶层消费回升，受益于股价上涨

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese luxury goods market is expected to experience fluctuations in 2025, with a projected decline in the first half of the year followed by a recovery in the second half, driven by a rebound in consumer spending among the affluent class due to rising stock market performance [2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The Chinese luxury goods market is forecasted to decline by 7-9% year-on-year in Q1 2025 and by 8-10% in Q2 2025, but is expected to stabilize in Q3 2025 and grow by 1-3% in Q4 2025 [2][4]. - The beauty and cosmetics sector, particularly skincare and perfumes, is projected to grow by 4-7% year-on-year, contributing positively to the overall luxury market [4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The affluent class in China, with a higher ratio of stock asset holdings, is showing improved consumer sentiment as stock prices rise, reversing the negative impact of declining real estate prices [6]. - There is a notable shift in spending habits, with a significant decline of 14-17% in watch sales, indicating a growing trend towards practical consumption, such as purchasing second-hand or smart watches [6]. Group 3: Economic Context - The luxury market in China expanded rapidly in the late 2010s but faced negative growth due to the impact of the real estate downturn and the COVID-19 pandemic [4]. - The consumer confidence index has remained below the optimistic threshold of 100 since the strict COVID-19 measures in Shanghai in spring 2022, reflecting ongoing consumer sentiment challenges [6].