美俄核裁军条约失效，特朗普摸索中国加入新框架

Core Viewpoint - The expiration of the New START treaty on February 5 marks the first disappearance of a nuclear arms control framework between the US and Russia since 1972, raising concerns about a potential nuclear arms race reminiscent of the Cold War era [2][4]. Summary by Sections Nuclear Arms Control Framework - The New START treaty, effective since February 2011, limited the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads for both the US and Russia to below 1,550 and restricted the number of delivery systems to 800, allowing for mutual verification and information sharing [4]. - The treaty was extended for five years in February 2021, but cannot be extended again, necessitating a new agreement. However, Russia has ceased compliance due to dissatisfaction with Western criticism regarding its actions in Ukraine, and the US has also stopped providing information [4][5]. Strategic Nuclear Arsenal - As of January 2025, Russia is projected to have 4,309 deployable nuclear warheads, while the US has 3,700, and China has around 600, with expectations that China's arsenal could exceed 1,000 by 2030 [6]. - The lack of a framework to constrain China's nuclear capabilities is seen as a strategic imbalance, as the New START treaty does not limit Russia's tactical nuclear weapons [6]. Future Negotiations and Military Developments - Former President Trump expressed intentions to initiate nuclear disarmament talks involving China and Russia, aiming for a consensus on halving defense budgets. However, China has rejected calls to join such negotiations, citing disparities in nuclear capabilities [6]. - Both the US and Russia are increasingly enhancing their nuclear arsenals, with Trump indicating plans for nuclear weapon testing and Russia successfully testing new nuclear-capable systems [6][7]. Historical Context - The necessity for conflict avoidance and arms race containment has been underscored by historical events such as the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, leading to treaties like the ABM Treaty in 1972 and the START I treaty in 1994, which set limits on strategic nuclear warheads [7].