光伏协会首次发布最新装机预测，反内卷也有了新方向

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the forecast for China's photovoltaic (PV) industry, predicting a decline in new installed capacity in 2026 compared to 2025, followed by a gradual recovery in subsequent years [3]. Group 1: 2026 and "14th Five-Year Plan" Forecast - The predicted new installed capacity for China's PV in 2026 is between 180GW and 240GW, while the global forecast ranges from 500GW to 667GW [3]. - For the "14th Five-Year Plan" period (2026-2030), the average annual new installed capacity in China is expected to be between 238GW and 287GW, with global figures ranging from 725GW to 870GW [3]. - The forecasted values for 2026 represent a decline from the 315.07GW of new installed capacity in 2025, indicating a short-term adjustment before a return to growth [3]. Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The article highlights that the PV market is currently experiencing a period of adjustment due to new policies, such as distributed PV management and market-oriented pricing reforms, leading to a cautious market sentiment [3]. - It is anticipated that from 2027 onwards, the annual new installed capacity in China will gradually increase, reaching between 270GW and 320GW by 2030 [3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes that 2026 will be a critical year for addressing industry challenges, focusing on governance and balancing supply and demand through various regulatory measures [3]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to promote the industrialization of advanced PV technologies, particularly in cutting-edge areas like perovskite tandem cells, to enhance competitive advantages and technological progress [4].