英国央行：不降息！

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%, with a narrow vote of 5 to 4, reflecting a complex economic situation in the UK, where economic growth data exceeded expectations but inflation remained above the target level [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decision - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged was influenced by better-than-expected monthly economic growth data, providing some stability to the economy [1]. - The Bank of England expects inflation to decline to around 2% starting in April, with a focus on balancing inflation risks and ensuring sustainable inflation [1][2]. Group 2: Future Rate Expectations - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that there is room for further monetary easing, but the timing of any rate cuts remains uncertain and will depend on upcoming economic data [2]. - Economists have differing views on the timing of potential rate cuts, with some predicting a likelihood of cuts in the first half of the year, particularly around the April 30 meeting [2][3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data suggests stronger domestic demand and persistent inflation, leading to adjustments in rate cut expectations, with some economists forecasting the first cut in April [3]. - The upcoming inflation and labor market data will be crucial for guiding the Bank of England's future monetary policy adjustments [4].