专访瑞银卡普顿：股票或是最值得配置的资产

Group 1 - The global economy is returning to a long-term potential growth trajectory, with credit gradually recovering and market confidence marginally improving. Stocks are expected to be the most advantageous asset class, with US stocks projected to rise by about 10%, and European and Japanese markets expected to see gains of around 8% [1][11]. - Emerging economic sectors have contributed approximately one-quarter of overall growth, surpassing the real estate sector in importance. This shift is not fully reflected in overall predictive data, indicating stronger actual economic performance than previously anticipated [4][3]. - China is recognized as a leading player in the global new economy, with per capita sales across various industries continuously increasing, signaling enhanced competitiveness. This trend is particularly evident in the AI sector, where China has found new ways to improve productivity [4][3]. Group 2 - The focus for 2026 will shift from investing in "producers of technology" to examining who will be the users and beneficiaries of technology. This includes a particular interest in data-intensive, labor-intensive, and low-cost companies that can achieve efficiency gains through new technologies [6][7]. - Investors are concerned about the concentration of funds in a few tech giants, leading to uncertainty about which companies will emerge as winners. This will be a recurring theme for investors in 2026 [7][8]. - The stock market is expected to experience a moderate "融涨" (liquidity-driven rise), as there is still significant liquidity in the market. If the economy maintains a trend of growth without major shocks, funds are likely to flow into the stock market [11][9]. Group 3 - China and Brazil are highlighted as the most promising emerging markets, offering significant value in terms of valuation levels and profit growth prospects. Investing in Chinese assets provides exposure to AI-related opportunities, which are not as readily available in India [13][12]. - The largest risks for global investors include potential fiscal stimulus measures in the US, which could significantly increase the fiscal deficit and lead to instability in global financial markets. The current fiscal deficit is approximately 6% of GDP [15][14]. - High levels of uncertainty in the US labor market, with 90% of economic growth stemming from AI investments and high-income spending, pose a risk of sudden economic downturns if this uncertainty persists [15][16].