警告！1.7亿吨铁矿石，正“绑架”中国钢厂

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing an unusual "reverse game" characterized by high prices and record inventories, leading to a complex interplay between supply and demand dynamics [2][3][5]. Inventory Situation - As of February 5, 2026, iron ore inventories at 45 major ports in China reached 170.22 million tons, with 47 ports totaling 177.58 million tons, both surpassing the 170 million ton mark and hitting a two-year high [3][4]. - The inventory increase is attributed to stable supply from major global mines and a seasonal slowdown in demand as steel mills prepare for the upcoming Spring Festival [8]. Price Dynamics - The price of 62% Australian iron ore remained high at $102.70 per ton as of February 5, 2026, despite the high inventory levels [2]. - The market is characterized by a standoff where buyers are reluctant to purchase at high prices due to the inventory situation, while sellers, particularly those with higher-cost inventory, are hesitant to sell at lower prices [12][24]. Steel Mills' Strategies - Steel mills are facing pressure to manage procurement carefully, balancing the risk of inventory devaluation against the need to ensure raw material availability during production [14][15]. - The procurement strategies have shifted towards risk management, utilizing long-term contracts and futures to stabilize costs and mitigate price volatility [16][18]. Market Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to experience a phase of supply surplus, particularly in the second half of 2026, as new capacities come online, which may limit price increases [20]. - The interplay between steel mill production rates and inventory replenishment will significantly influence short-term price movements, with expectations of price fluctuations rather than a clear upward trend [25].